Rob Parson at Morgan Stanley free essay sample

Paul Nasr, a senior MD in Capital Market Services at Morgan Stanley (from now on alluded to as MS) is confronting the provoking inquiry of how to adequately deal with Parson’s yearly execution survey without making an opening in a fundamental region that was hard to perform and had seen a colossal measure of turnover at MS. Nasr had the dread of losing Parson, his important worker and a star maker on the off chance that he was not elevated to Managing Director as guaranteed by Nasr during his recruiting. Loot Parson, Principal, Capital Market Services (CMS) had assumed a basic job in making huge increases in building MS’s income and notoriety. Parson was a remarkable individual benefactor, who in his genuine, determined endeavor to produce more business, had made an antagonistic situation around him by conflicting with the standards and culture of the association. MS’s condition and statement of purpose was of cooperation, development, building accord and rewarding representatives with poise and regard. We will compose a custom article test on Loot Parson at Morgan Stanley or on the other hand any comparative subject explicitly for you Don't WasteYour Time Recruit WRITER Just 13.90/page Be that as it may, there was no conventional preparing for new workers with respect to MS’s culture, desires and execution assessment (PE) process. Next, there were a few predispositions and vulnerable sides in the PE procedure. The 360â ° exhibition assessment seemed, by all accounts, to be an exceptionally shallow procedure, and there was no agreement on the most proficient method to actualize a choice dependent on PE and how to utilize the PE under different conditions. Directions and preparing on the most proficient method to make powerful execution appraisal was not given to the administrators. There was no unmistakable inner legitimacy/dependability proportion of the PE, prompting individual inclinations. Questions were not explicit and concentrated hands on capacity of the worker. Despite the fact that, Parson’s partners and seniors had portrayed him to be unpredictable, arrogant, rough, tyrannical, and crafty and â€Å"not a group player†, solid guides to site his qualities and shortcoming were absent. Additionally, the 360â ° assessment process was not altered to unique circumstances where one may need to contribute independently and use out of the case techniques to fabricate business in territories like CMS. In spite of the fact that, Parson needed to break a couple of eggs so as to build up the firm’s nearness in the CMS region, he had remarkable customer relationship aptitudes and made huge additions in building MS’s notoriety (positioned up from tenth to third) and incomes (pieces of the overall industry raised from 2% to 12. 2 %). Moreover, he was complimented by a few associates for his capacity to strategically pitch, his ability to share data and make acquaintances and his vivacious methodology with his activity. Unmistakably, the PE neglected to numerically process these various measurements in deciding an employee’s advancement. In conclusion, Nasr was incompletely liable for Parson’s inability to adjust to MS’s work culture. In spite of the fact that he had worked with Parson at an alternate firm prior and knew about his work style and character, he fizzled in his duty to prepare Parson to Morgan Stanley’s work culture. He thought little of the way that Parson was not the commonplace MS type and how much some of Parson’s activities had abused MS standards. Likewise, in being thoughtful towards Parson and being seen by others as his â€Å"Godfather† he neglected to address the relational issues Parson was looking in working with the individuals inside the firm and took a delicate position towards Parson. He was unable to be a decent coach and didn't give him ideal and valuable input. Nasr could deal with this issue by using the accompanying potential other options. To start with, he can suggest advancement for Parson in the wake of finishing his presentation assessment and improvement outline. Nasr could disclose to the senior item administrators about Parson’s qualities and commitments to the firm inside a brief timeframe and that too in a difficult territory and submit to them a compelling activity intend to improve his relational abilities. Nasr ought to examine with Parson the activity design and request that he chip away at his relational and authoritative aptitudes and have Parson himself address the council about his inadequacies and therapeutic moves that he has made. Besides, Nasr can meet with Parson to talk about the PE information parcel just as his view on the equivalent. He can think of an activity plan with Parson to deal with his more fragile regions and furnish him with assets for the equivalent, for e. g. appointing him a tutor to direct him to adjust to MS work style and sending him to workshops on group building and relational aptitudes. He can give him increasingly visit input and set deadlines for surveying him in 3 months to choose whether or not to put him up for advancement. On the other hand, Nasr doesn't put him up for advancement after his presentation assessment and improvement outline and clarifies his method of reasoning behind the equivalent; examines present moment and long haul objectives with him and thinks of an activity plan for the prospective year. In conclusion, After reflecting over all the parts of the PE, Nasr can talk about in the gathering with the higher administration his interests if the current PE is reasonable for be utilized as a solid standards for advancement of a representative, remembering that not all occupations in the organization can beâ perfectly filled by holding fast to the activity culture that MS has created, and ought to be redone in unique circumstances like these. Then again, I trust Parson ought not be advanced now of time. MD should be a â€Å"role model†, who reflects company’s vision and statement of purpose to his area of expertise representatives. He needs to deserve admiration for informatio n and knowledge among individuals, both inside and outside the firm. Parson, then again was domineering, critical, racing to a choice or feeling before having the realities, with conflicting dispositions and discourteous on occasion and not saw as a cooperative person by a large portion of his associates. Additionally, he neglected to lead as a Principal in CMS, by not indicating a very remarkable nearness toward the beginning of the day gatherings. As opposed to the normal score of 4. 0 for proficient abilities, he just scored normal of 2. 95 for the board abilities in partner rating. Capacity to verbalize office dreams and system is a significant duty of a MD, which Parson is by all accounts at present lacking. Loot Parson at Morgan Stanley free article test Paul Nasr, a senior MD in Capital Market Services at Morgan Stanley (from this point forward alluded to as MS) is confronting the moving inquiry of how to viably deal with Parson’s yearly execution survey without making an opening in a basic territory that was hard to perform and had seen an enormous measure of turnover at MS. Nasr had the dread of losing Parson, his significant worker and a star maker in the event that he was not elevated to Managing Director as guaranteed by Nasr during his recruiting. Ransack Parson, Principal, Capital Market Services (CMS) had assumed a basic job in making huge additions in building MS’s income and notoriety. Parson was an extraordinary individual supporter, who in his earnest, persistent endeavor to produce more business, had made an unfriendly domain around him by conflicting with the standards and culture of the association. MS’s condition and statement of purpose was of cooperation, advancement, building agreement and rewarding representatives with poise and regard. We will compose a custom paper test on Burglarize Parson at Morgan Stanley or on the other hand any comparative subject explicitly for you Don't WasteYour Time Recruit WRITER Just 13.90/page Be that as it may, there was no conventional preparing for new representatives with respect to MS’s culture, desires and execution assessment (PE) process. Next, there were a few inclinations and vulnerable sides in the PE procedure. The 360â ° exhibition assessment seemed, by all accounts, to be an exceptionally shallow procedure, and there was no accord on the best way to actualize a choice dependent on PE and how to utilize the PE under different conditions. Directions and preparing on the most proficient method to make successful execution evaluation was not given to the chiefs. There was no positive inner legitimacy/dependability proportion of the PE, prompting individual predispositions. Questions were not explicit and concentrated hands on capacity of the worker. In spite of the fact that, Parson’s partners and seniors had portrayed him to be unpredictable, presumptuous, rough, oppressive, and undependable and â€Å"not a group player†, solid guides to site his qualities and shortcoming were absent. Likewise, the 360â ° assessment process was not redone to uncommon circumstances where one may need to contribute independently and use out of the crate techniques to assemble business in regions like CMS. Despite the fact that, Parson needed to break a couple of eggs so as to build up the firm’s nearness in the CMS region, he had unprecedented customer relationship abilities and made critical increases in building MS’s notoriety (positioned up from tenth to third) and incomes (pieces of the pie raised from 2% to 12. 2 %). Furthermore, he was complimented by a few partners for his capacity to strategically pitch, his eagerness to share data and make acquaintances and his lively methodology with his activity. Unmistakably, the PE neglected to scientifically register these various measurements in deciding an employee’s advancement. In conclusion, Nasr was somewhat liable for Parson’s inability to adjust to MS’s work culture. Despite the fact that he had worked with Parson at an alternate firm prior and knew about his work style and character, he fizzled in his duty to prepare Parson to Morgan Stanley’s work culture. He thought little of the way that Parson was not the run of the mill MS type and how much some of Parson’s activities had disregarded MS standards. Additionally, in being thoughtful towards Parson and bei

Critical thinking skills

Basic reasoning abilities As per Loving and Wilson (2000), its moving undertaking to ensuring the understudies have the basic reasoning aptitudes. To Novak, learning requires 5 segments which are the educator, student, information, assessment and setting to introduce. Novak likewise referenced that understudies ought to be guided by a decent educator through genuine learning and not simply by simply retaining it. An idea map is educated to the understudies so as to improve their subjective abilities identified with basic reasoning aptitudes which are valuable in different fields. The ideas map can improve the understudies execution in the subjects requiring basic reasoning abilities (Daley et al, 1999). Thus, Ausubels (1968) osmosis hypothesis is utilized along with Novaks (1998) idea map so as to advance basic suspecting abilities among the understudies in light of the fact that the attributes of basic deduction, for example, investigation, translation, induction, clarification and self guideline are associa ted with the idea improvement. (Vacek, 2009) 5 stages of learning procedure, for example, idea development, subsumption, dynamic separation, integrative compromise and conlidation are depicted in the Ausubel digestion hypothesis. These means are consolidated to make confused basic reasoning procedure such a great amount of simpler through the structure of an idea map (Novak, 1998). The arrangement of idea is partitioned into the essential idea and optional idea. As indicated by Ausubel (1968), the little youngsters start to perceive and mark something that is customary utilizing the language images and the idea development is first happening in them. Through perception, the little youngsters formed their scholarly movement and this makes up the essential idea which the case of essential idea incorporate seat, table and feline (Novak 1998). The auxiliary idea is when after having perceived a lot of consistency, their subjective structures are manufactured, and numerous new ideas with no noticeable items are taken by the youngsters through kids. The models are love, outrage and trouble. As indicated by Novak (1998), the learning procedure of grown-ups building the new ideas is comparative with the procedure learnt by a kid to make importance for words. The development of idea is additionally comparable with understanding of basic reasoning.         According to Ausubel (1968), the joining of the recently procured information with the past information is the thing that known as the subsumption, a period of learning process and important learning. New substance and old information are connected together and this structures the osmosis hypothesis.         In dynamic separation, Ausubel (1998) expressed that the normal succession where individuals intellectually arrange and store information is hierarchal from general to explicit. It is infrequently utilized in the instruction which makes numerous understudies retain the data than having a significant learning process. Human psyche works by taking the entire with the acclimatized parts than the other way around process. Ausubel (1998) likewise notice that it tends to be accomplished by organizing the data in a hierarchal arrangement which its from the general to the subtleties parts in a diving way by having subset focuses stretching from the central matters.         Integrated compromise is a type of examination which it will happen when an individual comprehends a given idea which is unique yet in addition like another idea. Misinterpretations will happens when coordinated compromise isn't finished. Recently procured thoughts are coordinated and related with the recently learned subjects. With incorporated compromise, understudies will realize how to interconnect his new learning and old learning through creation full utilization of the past scholarly information to help the new information.         Ausubel (1968) referenced that combination is done through remedy and explanation and it is imperative to ace one exercise before learning the following exercise as learning may be hindered if an understudy didn't ace the present exercise. Its a piece of basic intuition as union will make open door for the understudy to self-manage their exercise.         The mix of Ausubels hypothesis of absorption and Novaks idea maps is utilized to advance and ace the basic reasoning abilities. As indicated by Novak(1998), an idea is characterized as an apparent normality in occasions or items, or records of occasions or protested assigned by mark. An idea guide can help individuals to unravel, decipher and sort the issues. An idea map is begun by distinguishing and addresses the issues on maps and later introducing it from the general into progressively explicit ideas in a sliding hierarchal way with cross-interfaces that depicts an association of information. Obstructions to Critical Thinking The mix of basic speculation abilities to instruction are frequently obstructed by hindrances or deterrents. These hindrances are absence of preparing, absence of data, previously established inclinations and time requirements. As indicated by Broadbear(2003), the absence of preparing among the instructors in basic reasoning approach cause the poor the basic intuition abilities among the understudies. The instructors dont realize how to show basic reasoning aptitudes despite the fact that they have gotten the preparation techniques and knowing the substance of the basic reasoning abilities. Next, Scriven and Paul (2007) notice that the absence of extra basic intuition assets in the instructional materials as just a couple of instructional materials give it. Albeit, certain course books give part based basic reasoning conversation questions yet anyway it comes up short on extra data. Frequently, previously established inclinations, for example, individual predisposition about the instructional materials regularly hinder and obstructs the capacity of the instructors and understudies to think basically as one of the attributes of basic reasoning abilities is systematic aptitudes which is as a rule reasonable, liberal and slanted to pose inquiries in regards to the themes. (Kang Howren, 2004). Finally, teachers need to cover a wide substance inside a brief timeframe period and consequently, easy routes are taken by these educators so as to complete the prospectus. Talks, tips or target tests are given to the understudies as opposed to testing their diagnostic capacities through issue based inquiries. The educators will in general spotlight on the substance rather offering chances to the understudies to comprehend questions. Target tests are given to the understudies as it is quicker to level than short answer questions and as per the exploration done, target tests and addressing are not the best evaluation and guidance techniques (Broadbear, 2003; Brodie Irving 2007). Basic Thinking Development: A Stage Theory         There are 6 phases in the basic reasoning turn of events. The stages start with the unreflective mastermind stage followed by the tested scholar, the starting mastermind, the rehearsing mastermind, the propelled mastermind and in conclusion, the ace scholar stage.         The first stage, the unreflective scholar stage, which the mastermind comes up short on the mindfulness in regards to their reasoning are influencing their lives and they dont realize how to apply their insight and routinely practice in their every day lives. Explain, exactness, rationale, or significance are a piece of the principles for the appraisal of considering which the masterminds in this stage are uninformed of. Their reasoning aptitudes may have grown however they probably won't understand it. Also, issues, for example, biases and misguided judgments may happen in their lives because of absence of self-checking musings. Next, graduates moving on from auxiliary school or school can be still in the principal stage and they come up short on the aptitudes to survey or improve their reasoning.         The second stage, the tested scholar, is characterized when the masterminds acknowledged and mindful that reasoning is a piece of their lives and furthermore issues emerges because of poor reasoning. They know that their reasoning has issues however ignorant in distinguishing the issues are. Guidelines for the evaluation and furthermore attention to intuition as including ideas, suppositions and surmisings are what the masterminds in this stage are getting mindful of in spite of the fact that their comprehension may be restricted. The irregularity of applying their reasoning abilities are making the masterminds accepted that their reasoning is better than it really is. The starting scholar which is the third stage is the point at which the masterminds understood the fundamental issues in their reasoning and start to discover approaches to comprehend and improve their thoroughly considering adjustment of a portion of their reasoning yet may have come up short on the precise plans and constrained comprehension of more profound degrees of issues. In this stage, the masterminds have enough abilities to self manage their contemplations and ready to acknowledge the study of their forces of thought. Next, they start to understand the necessities of disguising and utilizing the measures for the appraisal of reasoning and furthermore the job of intuition in their day by day life. The fourth stage is the rehearsing scholar which the mastermind perceive the requirements to address the issues existed the in their thoroughly considering an efficient practice in deduction consistently and disguise them into propensities. Be that as it may, they do not have the comprehension of the more profound degrees of understanding which prompts further degrees of issues installed in the reasoning. They getting increasingly learned and normally screen the job in their reasoning and furthermore surveying their principles for the evaluation of reasoning. The key characteristic in this stage is scholarly diligence which will end up being a main thrust building up a sensible arrangement for efficient practice. Stage five or the propelled scholar is the point at which the masterminds are into issues at more profound degrees of thought, for example, egocentric and sociocentric and furthermore effectively examining their reasoning. They can deliberately

Legitimate Trade And Cash Crops Essay

[European missionaries] endeavored to end the slave exchange, that is exchange a few products other than slaves. The abolitionist servitude development was a generally helpful development that started in the mid nineteenth century. The endeavor to end the slave exchange additionally was expected to additionally Europeanize African social orders. Not exclusively did the â€Å"legitimization† of exchange look to end the Atlantic slave exchange, yet in addition the slave that had existed among Africans for a considerable length of time. Accordingly, numerous parts of the customary African culture were changed. As the slave exchange passed on, new markets opened both to fulfill European needs and to exploit the accessible African work. The greater part of the items that the Europeans executed were money crops. Different money crops included cotton, maize, tobacco, sugar, espresso, tea, palm oil, and groundnuts. The money crops were sought after in the remainder of the world and had a significant influence in the modernization of most areas of the landmass. Europeans sought after the creation of money crops to raise income to pay for the costs of the colonization procedure. Therefore, conventional resource cultivating lost significance, most countries concentrated on just a solitary or a couple of yields, patriotism of land happened, and developments were brought to Africa, for example, water system.

National Infrastructure Protection Plan - 550 Words

National Infrastructure Protection Plan and Risk Management Framework (Essay Sample) Content: Infrastructure Protection and Risk Management PlanNameInstitution The 21st century world is characterized by a wide range of both natural and manmade threats and hazards that include but not limited to terrorism attacks, natural calamities, accidents and other form of emergencies. These threats and hazards expose critical natural infrastructure and key resources to either direct or indirect risk. An effective national infrastructure and resources protection system should prioritize prevention of catastrophes that may lead to loses of lives and management of disruptive impacts that may tamper with national economies. In the United States of America, the national infrastructure protection plan (NIPP) has been put in place to manage and reduce the effects of the most serious threats and risks that the national faces. The current NIPP has achieved the above objectives by coming up with a strategy that strikes a balance between the nations resiliency and a well focused and risky conscious prevention, protection and preparedness plan (Department of Homeland Security 2009). The NIPP plan, which operates under critical infrastructure and key resources (CIKR) protection framework, carries out its operations by integrating a vast network of federal agencies, local government agencies, private sector and regional consortia. The overall aim of the NIPP plan is to incorporate multiple jurisdictions and authorities in unifies yet flexible way in enhancing the countrys CIKR protection. The feedback loop design is a critical part of the NIPP for it tracks the progress of the infrastructure protection plan and suggests necessary improvements to the protection of the CIKR. The feedback loop design consists of various continuous steps that should be followed to protect infrastructure or resources from risk (John 2007). These steps are repeated in reverse order, also referred to as loop order, to fast track the improvements and make necessary improvements. The pre sence of the feedback loop design works to strengthen the national infrastructure protection program since it measure effectiveness of the program from time to time, making it identify areas of weaknesses and carry out necessary corrections, updates and improvements. The risk management approach is suitable for protecting the nations critical infrastructure since it establishes a comprehensive risk management framework that combines vulnerability, consequences and risk information in order to come up with a holistic rational and systematic assessment of national and regional risk. The risk management approach framework is structured such that it promotes continued improvement in infrastructure and resources protection program. Risk management approach is comprised of six steps namely setting of security goals, identification of target systems, assets, functions and networks, assessment of risks, prioritization of risks, implementation of protective programs and measurement of effec tiveness (Department of Homeland Security 2009). The outcomes of these steps is usually reduced risk and improved risk management activities. The second step, that involves identification of target systems, assets, functions and networks, is the most central and critical in the entire risk management framework since narrows down to national resources and installations that are deemed most vulnerable. By developing an inventory of systems, assets and networks located within and without the nation, the step enables the NIPP to focus on the most critical areas as opposed to spreading attention to some areas that may not be under threat at all. The major criticism that the national infrastructure protection model has faced is that it has vast number of entries that can not effectively be handled using the currently available resources. The next critic is that most of these assets have mo...

The Article Here Comes The Sun - 1284 Words

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Immigration And The Illegal Immigration Into The United...

Immigration A major part of political platforms in the 2016 race is immigration and how we will deal with it. And it is seemingly unanimous that they are trying to decrease the amount of travel into the United states because it leads to major issues, but does it really? It’s acting as a catalyst in creating a more diverse economy, helping the growth and advancement of diplomatic ties with other countries, and it is the basis for which this country is founded on - immigrate, settle, colonize, grow. The issue that we should be fighting against is the illegal immigration into the US. The undocumented persons -- not the document travelers -- are where issues like manual labor jobs being given at a lower wage, the idea that terrorist acts can be committed, and the increase in crime arise, but even so these statements are frequently false and grotesquely exaggerated. The issue of immigration and illegal immigration being spoken on within the same context is giving the a large majority of the p opulation the idea that they are one and the same- both being seen as one criminal group. The United States needs a complete overhaul of their illegal immigration prevention and legal immigration system, but the opposition is attempting to close the borders completely. To both those who are coming in with and without permission, and they are gaining followers because they are using facts that are not facts at all and are purely procured from opinion. (Show Your Support) The process to beShow MoreRelatedIllegal Immigration And Immigration In The United States1091 Words   |  5 Pagesarrest persons for immigration enforcement purposes. (De Leon, K) The new legislation, created by California Senate President Kevin de Leon, officially makes the state of California a â€Å"sanctuary state†. 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They were all in search of a bright future with a new life in a new place, just as the many immigrants we see here today are. People were curious about life here and what later on was called the â€Å"American Dream;† they wanted to know what it was really like. However, over the years, legal residencyRead MoreIllegal Immigration And The United States1624 Words   |  7 PagesWhy is illegal immigration often viewed as a threat to the United States ra ther than being unscrupulous? With over 11.5 million illegal immigrants in the Unites States, opponents of illegal immigration dispute that concept of granting amnesty to these immigrants. These arguments include that certain jobs will be stolen, and an increase in crime rate would develop. Despite the fact that illegal immigration is controversial, recent studies and social trends have shown that granting amnesty to illegalRead MoreIllegal Immigration And The United States1664 Words   |  7 Pagesunauthorized immigrants or â€Å"aliens† (as many people labeled them) living in the United States has stabilized since 2013, compared to 12.2 million in 2007 (which was the beginning of the Great Recession) and 3.5 million in 1990. In other words, the illegal immigration rate arriving and living in the U.S. has decreased, but there are still millions of unauthorized immigrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. Illegal immigration and policy has become an important and political d ebate between millions ofRead MoreIllegal Immigration And The United States1573 Words   |  7 Pagesmillion illegal immigrants currently residing in the United States furthermore, for the United States economy. The correctional prerequisites against migrants were added to enactment to protect it from feedback that acquittal is absolution without outcome. Immigration makes a difference among everybody, and Congress ought to be doing everything in its energy to make it as simple as feasible for settlers to live and work lawfully what s more, openly in the United States. The United States is known

Statistical Inference & Regression Analysis Free Sample

Question: 1. Use the same data that was used in Assignment 1 which is the SWEETS-4-U2 data for the previous year which consists of 52 weekly values of the sales and costs for the two popular product lines namely Forgive and Rejoice. These two products are both wrapped chocolates sold by weight. The only difference between Forgive and Rejoice is that different messages are attached to each type of chocolate. The Forgive chocolates have messages like Sorry, Forgive Me and Trust Me and the Rejoice chocolates have messages like Celebrate, Have Fun and I Love You. The 52 Sales and Cost values for both types of chocolate are given in SWEETS-4-U2.xls. The Accountant for SWEETS-4-U2 is worried that the business is spending too much on advertising for Rejoice as sales now exceed what the firm has budgeted for. In the business plan the firm had assumed that the average weekly sales for Rejoice was $450. If sales are more than $450 then the firm will be able to reduce its advertising spending. (You can use Excel or your calculator for any calculations.) [a] Using Excel and the weekly sales data find the mean and standard deviation of Rejoice Sales. [b] Find the 90% interval estimate of the average weekly sales for Rejoice. [c] Using a level of significance of a = 0.05 test whether the average of the weekly sales for Rejoice are more than 450. [d] Briefly explain what a Type I error and what a Type II error are and what are their costs or consequences in this problem. [e] Find the p value in this situation. Explain what the p value is and how we would use the p value to test the hypotheses. [f] Using the p value test the hypotheses when the level of significance is a = 0.10 [g] Briefly explain how and when we can use an interval estimate when testing hypotheses. 2. Suppose the Sales manager of the Sweets-4-U2 chain of confectionary stores is interested in the relationship between Sales and Total costs for the Rejoice range of chocolates. i.e. how total cost is affected by sales, for the Rejoice product line. The 52 Sales and Cost values for both types of chocolate are given in SWEETS-4-U2.xls. Unless otherwise stated use a level of significance of a = 0.05.) (You can use Excel or your calculator for any calculations.) [a] Obtain the scatter diagram, the covariance and the correlation coefficient for Total Costs and Sales for the Rejoice chocolates. Briefly explain what this graph and these values are telling us about the relationship between Total Costs and Sales [b] Write down the two forms of the Population Regression function you would assume here. Briefly explain how we interpret the conditional mean E(Y | X) and the error term (e). [c] Estimate the sample regression function. Write down your estimated model and briefly explain what the estimated intercept and estimated slope are telling us about the relationship between the Total Costs and Sales for Rejoice chocolates. [d] Using the F statistic, the R-squared value and the p-value for the estimated slope briefly discuss whether this estimated model does or does not show that there is a significant relationship between Total Costs and Sales for Rejoice chocolates. (With a sample of n = 52 you can assume that the critical values for the t statistic are the same as the critical values for a z statistic.) [e] Test the following hypotheses concerning the slope H0 : b1 = 0.8 and H1 : b1 0.8 [f] Using you estimated model forecast the Total Costs when Sales are 200. Comment briefly on how useful this forecast will be. Briefly explain what we mean by the terms Prediction Interval and Confidence Interval [g] Using the F statistic, the R-squared value and the scatter diagram which shows the Residuals on the vertical axis and the values of Sales (our X variable) on the horizontal axis briefly discuss whether our estimated model can be seen as a reliable estimate of the relationship between Total Costs and Sales for Rejoice chocolates. Answer: a) Using Excel and the weekly sales data find the mean and standard deviation of Rejoice Sales. The mean and standard deviation by using excel is given below: b) Find the 90% interval estimate of the average weekly sales for Rejoice. The 90% confidence interval estimate of the average weekly sales for rejoice is given in the following table: c) Using a level of significance of a = 0.05 test whether the average of the weekly sales for Rejoice are more than 450. Here we have to use the one sample t test for the population average of the weekly sales for the Rejoice. The total test with calculations are given below: Null hypothesis: Population average for weekly sales is $450. Alternative hypothesis: Population average for weekly sales is more than $450. One sample t test for Rejoice sales d) Here we reject the null hypothesis that the population average for the weekly sales is $450. Briefly explain what a Type I error and what a Type II error are and what are their costs or consequences in this problem. Type I error is nothing but the probability of the rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true and type II error is the probability of the not rejecting the null hypothesis even though it is not true. For this problem, the type I error is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis that the average of the weekly sales for Rejoice is $450 when actually it is true that the average of the weekly sales for Rejoice is $450. The type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis that the average of the weekly sales for Rejoice is $450 when actually it is false that the average of the weekly sales for Rejoice is $450. e) Here we are given a p-value = 0.0833 and we know the following decision rule: Decision rule: We reject the null hypothesis when the p-value is less than the alpha value or level of significance and we do not reject the null hypothesis when the p-value is greater than the alpha value or level of significance. Here, we have alpha value = 0.05 and p-value = 0.0833, that is, we have p-value alpha value, therefore, we do not reject the null hypothesis that the average of the weekly sales for Rejoice is $450. f) Using the p value test the hypotheses when the level of significance is a = 0.10 The t test for the average for alpha = 0.10 is given below: t test for rejoice (alpha = 0.10) Here also we get the p-value = 0.0833 And we have alpha = 0.10 Here, p-value alpha value Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis that the average of the weekly sales for Rejoice is $450. g) Briefly explain how and when we can use an interval estimate when testing hypotheses. If the test statistic value in the testing hypothesis is lies between the lower limit and upper limit of the given confidence interval, then we do not reject the null hypothesis that the average of the weekly sales for Rejoice is $450 and if the test statistic value is out of this confidence interval then we reject the null hypothesis that the average of the weekly sales for Rejoice is $450. The scatter plot for the total costs and sales for the Rejoice Chocolates is given as below: For this scatter plot y represents the total costs and x represents the sales for the rejoice chocolates. The covariance for the total cost and sales is given as below: The correlation coefficient for the total cost and sales is given as below: h) Write down the two forms of the Population Regression function you would assume here. Briefly explain how we interpret the conditional mean E(Y | X) and the error term (e). The two forms of the population regression function is written as below: Y = a + b*X Where Y is dependent variable, X is independent variable, a is the y-intercept and b is the slope of the regression line. In another form of the population regression function is given as below: Total cost = a + b*Sales We interpret the conditional mean E(Y|X) when we already given the mean of the x values or values of independent variable. The error term is nothing but the difference between the predicted value and the actual value. i) Estimate the sample regression function. Write down your estimated model and briefly explain what the estimated intercept and estimated slope are telling us about the relationship between the Total Costs and Sales for Rejoice chocolates. Here we have to estimate the sample regression function. For this regression model, we take the dependent variable y as the total cost and independent variable x as the sales of the rejoice chocolates. The regression analysis by using excel is given as below: Here we get the correlation coefficient as the 0.9723, this indicate that there is high association between the dependent variable total cost and independent variable sales of the rejoice chocolates. There is high linear relationship found between the dependent variable total cost and independent variable sales of the rejoice chocolates. The ANOVA table for this regression model is given as below: The coefficients for the regression equation are given in the following table: The regression equation is given as below: Y = 51.7669 + 1.0014*X Total cost = 51.7669 + 1.0014*sales j) Using the F statistic, the R-squared value and the p-value for the estimated slope briefly discuss whether this estimated model does or does not show that there is a significant relationship between Total Costs and Sales for Rejoice chocolates. (With a sample of n = 52 you can assume that the critical values for the t statistic are the same as the critical values for a z statistic.) Here the F statistic value is given as 865.47 and p-value is given as 0.00. The value of coefficient of determination or R squared is given as 0.9454, this means, about 94.54% of the variation in the dependent variable total cost is explained by the independent variable sales of rejoice chocolates for this regression model. For this regression model, the p-value is given as 0.00 which is less than the level of significance or alpha value 0.05, therefore we reject the null hypothesis that the linear relationship between the dependent variable total cost and independent variable sales of rejoice chocolates is significant. k) Test the following hypotheses concerning the slope H0 : b1 = 0.8 and H1 : b1 0.8 The complete test procedure is given below: Null hypothesis: H0 : b1 = 0.8 Alternative hypothesis: H1 : b1 0.8 Level of significance = alpha = 0.05 Degrees of freedom = n 2 = 52 2 = 50 Critical value = 2.008559072 Test statistic formula is given as below: t = b1 / SE where SE is the standard error and formula for standard error is given as bleow: SE = sb1 = sqrt [ (yi - i)2 / (n - 2) ] / sqrt [ (xi - x)2 ] The standard error is given as SE = 0.1373 Test statistic = t = 0.8 / 0.1373 = 5.8267 Critical value = 2.008559072 Test statistic Critical value Decision rule: Reject null hypothesis when test statistic value critical value Here test statistic value is greater than the critical value, therefore, we reject the null hypothesis that the slope is 0.8. l) Using you estimated model forecast the Total Costs when Sales are 200. Comment briefly on how useful this forecast will be. Briefly explain what we mean by the terms Prediction Interval and Confidence Interval Here we are given value of sales = 200. Now for forecasting the total costs we have to use the above regression model which is given as below: Y = a + b*X Total cost = a + b*Sales Y = 51.7669 + 1.0014*X Total cost = 51.7669 + 1.0014*sales Now, plug sales = 200 in the above regression equation for estimation or forecasting of total costs. Total cost = 51.7669 + 1.0014*200 = 252.0469 Total cost = $252.0469 Prediction interval means, the interval in which the predicted values lies in and the confidence interval means, the interval for which we have exact probability or confidence that the values are lies within this interval. m) Using the F statistic, the R-squared value and the scatter diagram which shows the Residuals on the vertical axis and the values of Sales (our X variable) on the horizontal axis briefly discuss whether our estimated model can be seen as a reliable estimate of the relationship between Total Costs and Sales for Rejoice chocolates. For this regression model, we get the F statistic value as 865.4676 which is very high. The value of coefficient of determination or R squared is given as 0.9454, this means, about 94.54% of the variation in the dependent variable total cost is explained by the independent variable sales of rejoice chocolates for this regression model. The scatter plot clearly shows the linear relationship exist between the dependent variable total cost and independent variable sales of rejoice chocolates. For this regression model, we reject the null hypothesis that the linear relationship between the dependent variable total cost and independent variable sales of rejoice chocolates is significant.